Weekly Market Recap (May 19-23, 2025)
What Moved the Markets This Week — Insights for Smart Traders
By Md Mohibullah – CSO, Fundure Research
Market Snapshot
This section provides a high-level overview of the market’s performance for the week ending May 23, 2025, including the general sentiment and key index movements. It sets the stage for understanding the broader market dynamics discussed in subsequent sections.
I. Headline Summary
The week concluding May 23, 2025, presented a challenging and volatile environment for U.S. equities, characterized by a distinct bearish sentiment and choppy trading. Major indices experienced their most significant weekly declines in over a month, a broad pullback primarily triggered by renewed trade war rhetoric from President Trump and persistent underlying inflation concerns. Despite the widespread market weakness, the period also revealed a highly bifurcated market, where a selective group of stocks, particularly those with strong earnings results or compelling catalysts related to artificial intelligence, managed to post notable gains. This divergence highlights a market where company-specific narratives could, at times, defy broader macroeconomic headwinds.
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II. Major Index Performance
U.S. stock markets ended the week on a decidedly negative trajectory, with all major benchmarks registering substantial losses, primarily driven by renewed trade tariff threats. The table below illustrates the performance of key U.S. indices.
| Index | Close | Weekly % Change |
|---|---|---|
| NASDAQ 100 | 20,915.65 | ▼ 0.93% |
| S&P 500 | 5,802.82 | ▼ 0.67% |
| Dow Jones | 41,603.07 | ▼ 0.61% |
Note: While the NASDAQ 100 saw a 0.93% decline, the broader Nasdaq Composite fell 2.5% for the week, indicating varied performance within the tech sector.
Economic Pulse
This section delves into the key economic data releases and Federal Reserve communications that influenced market sentiment during the week. Understanding these indicators is crucial for gauging inflationary pressures, labor market health, and potential shifts in monetary policy. Click on each event below to explore the details and Fundure’s interpretation.
The all-items CPI for April 2025 rose 2.3% year-over-year (a slight deceleration), but core CPI remained more persistent at 2.8%. Shelter costs continued to rise. While headline inflation cooled, sticky core inflation suggests the Fed remains cautious about rate cuts, pointing towards a “higher for longer” environment. Combined with PMI warnings and softer labor/retail data, this raises concerns about potential stagflation.
Fundure Interpretation: The mixed CPI data fueled investor uncertainty. The Fed faces a dilemma with cooling headline but sticky core inflation, making aggressive rate cuts unlikely and potentially impacting growth stock valuations.
Fed officials like John Williams and Tom Barkin spoke, with markets sensitive to their remarks. The key focus is on the upcoming FOMC minutes (May 28) for deeper insights into the Fed’s policy discussions and forward guidance.
Fundure Interpretation: While individual speeches offer sentiment clues, the market awaits the collective consensus from the FOMC minutes. Positioning ahead of this release carries risk but also opportunity.
Jobless claims (week ending May 17) showed a slight decrease in initial claims to 227,000, but the 4-week average rose, and insured unemployment increased. April retail sales grew only 0.1% month-over-month, a significant slowdown from 1.7% in March. This suggests a softening labor market and weakening consumer spending, implying a potential economic slowdown.
Fundure Interpretation: These are leading indicators of an economic slowdown. A cooling labor market and strained consumer spending will likely impact corporate earnings, particularly for consumer-facing businesses.
Asset Movements
This section tracks the performance of key commodities and analyzes notable sector movements. It highlights how different asset classes reacted to the week’s economic news and geopolitical events, offering insights into investor sentiment and market rotations.
IV. Commodities Snapshot
Commodity markets reflected risk aversion, with gold surging and crude oil declining weekly.
| Commodity | Close | Weekly % Change |
|---|---|---|
| Gold | $3,357.34 | ▲ 1.7% |
| Crude Oil (WTI) | $63.98 | ▼ 0.8% |
Gold: Surged as a safe-haven asset amid trade tensions, U.S. fiscal deficit concerns, and a weakening dollar.
Crude Oil (WTI): Ended lower despite a Friday rebound, suggesting demand concerns outweighed supply risks.
Fundure Interpretation: Gold’s rally signals a flight to safety. Oil’s weakness suggests fears of slowing global demand are overriding supply risks, painting a bearish picture.
V. Notable Sector Movers
Sector performance was highly bifurcated. Broad trends masked significant individual stock divergence. A bottom-up, stock-specific approach was crucial.
Laggards
- Energy: Led market slide, aligning with lower oil prices and demand concerns.
- Real Estate: Also led declines, likely due to rising yields and slowdown fears.
- Select Consumer Discretionary & Tech: Many major names (e.g., Deckers, Workday, Ross Stores, MSFT, NVDA, AMZN) fell due to tariff uncertainties or broad selling pressure, despite “Tech” and “Consumer Discretionary” sometimes being labeled winners.
Winners (Individual Stocks)
- Intuit (INTU): Surged 8.1% on strong earnings.
- CrowdStrike (CRWD): Advanced 2.6% on AI integration news.
- Enphase Energy (ENPH), AES Corp (AES): Bounced, suggesting renewable recovery.
- Urban Outfitters, Amer Sports, Advance Auto Parts: Strong individual gains in Consumer Discretionary.
Fundure Interpretation: The market showed stark contradictions between broad sector labels and individual stock realities. Tariff impacts were directly visible in specific company performances (e.g., Deckers). This highlights the need for careful stock selection over broad sector bets.
Fundure’s Perspective
This section provides Fundure’s unique commentary on the week’s market events, including insights into trading approaches, notable chart reactions, and a look at what to watch in the week ahead. It concludes with how you can connect with the Fundure community.
VI. Fundure Insights / Commentary
The past week exemplified a market driven by significant macro headlines and selective stock-specific reactions. Fundure traders prioritized proactive macro risk management due to tariff threats and mixed inflation data, emphasizing disciplined position sizing and hedging.
Simultaneously, the market’s bifurcation created micro opportunities. Traders identified companies with strong idiosyncratic catalysts (e.g., Intuit’s earnings, CrowdStrike’s AI news), requiring deep company-specific research rather than broad sector assumptions. This adaptive approach, blending macro awareness with micro selectivity, was key.
Strategically, “shock & soak” behaviors were observed in some quality tech names after initial sell-offs, offering VWAP fade opportunities (e.g., Nvidia, given its AI narrative). Conversely, laggard sectors like Energy and Real Estate presented opportunities to fade rallies back to VWAP. Gold’s surge validated long positions as a safe-haven play.
VII. Looking Ahead: Next Week’s Watchlist
The upcoming week is packed with potentially market-moving economic releases and earnings reports.
Key Economic Data:
- Mon, May 26: US Markets Closed (Memorial Day)
- Tue, May 27: Consumer Confidence, Advance Durable Goods
- Wed, May 28: FOMC Minutes
- Thu, May 29: Initial Jobless Claims, Q1 2025 GDP (expected -0.3%)
- Fri, May 30: Core PCE Price Index, Advance Economic Indicators
Fundure Note: High volume of significant data creates potential for volatility. Prepare for rapid reactions.
Major Earnings Reports:
- Tue, May 27: OKTA, Dollar Tree, BOX, Semtech
- Wed, May 28: NVIDIA (NVDA), Salesforce (CRM), HP (HPQ), Synopsys (SNPS), Macy’s (M), and Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF)
- Thu, May 29: CrowdStrike (CRWD), Dell Technologies (DELL), and Lululemon Athletica (LULU)
Fundure Note: NVIDIA’s earnings are a key test for the AI rally. CrowdStrike will offer insights into enterprise AI spending.
Fundure Alerts & AI Prediction Tool Preview:
Fundure’s AI tools will monitor these events for real-time alerts on trading opportunities (shock & soak, VWAP fades). Members should expect increased volatility and leverage alerts for timely insights.
VIII. Connect with Fundure
Navigate complex markets and gain a decisive edge. Join the Fundure Tribe for expert analysis and cutting-edge tools.
About the Author
Md Mohibullah
CSO, Fundure
Md Mohibullah is the Chief Strategy Officer at Fundure Research, where he leads strategic initiatives at the intersection of data, economics, and financial technology. With a background in analytical chemistry and deep expertise in trading systems, Mohibullah brings a unique perspective to market research and policy analysis. He is passionate about making complex financial insights accessible, actionable, and impactful.
